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Inaki Irazabalbeitia

Former MEP, Aralar

Some comments on Spanish elections

Dec 31, 2015

Legislative elections of December 20th had a diabolic outcome. They marked the end of two party system, the end of big majorities and built up an difficult scenario to set up a government.
  1. Prior to the beginning of the campaign, pools showed that centre-right emerging party Ciudadanos was rising fast and that could be the key to form a right wing government alongside with Popular Party that appeared as the winning one. Podemos did rather bad in pools. At some point,  it seemed that Ciudadanos could surpass theSocialist Party as second political force.

  2. During the campaign Citizens has gone down in the polls and Podemos has risen. In the end, Citizens finally got less than half of the predicted seats and Podemos 50% more than what the polls predicted. Note that a third of the deputies of Podemos we had been elected in coalitions with nationalist  and regionalist parties.

  3. No party has an absolute majority. Right wing (PP + Ciudadanos) fails. State Left (Socialist + Podemos + United Left) fails as well. The left wing would need the votes of nationalists, such as ERC or EHBildu. This is difficult because the PSOE seems unwilling to make a selft-determination referemdum in Catalonia which seems to be a red line for Podemos and clearly it is for ERC or EHBildu.

  4. Economical powers, the oligarchy and media are pushing PSOE to set up die Grosse Koalition. That is the only formula that reaches the absolute majority. It would be the hara-kiri for PSOE in the medium term.

  5. If there is no agreement in 4 months there will be new elections.

Some comments on Spanish elections

Distribution of seats